House GOP’s “Death List” Leaks

The U.S. News & World Report:

The document provided to Whispers is no gag: It comes from one of the key House GOP vote counters. The source called it a “death list.” The tally shows several different ratings of 66 House Republicans in difficult races or open seats held by retiring Republicans. “Rating 1” finds 10 Republicans “likely gone.” Those districts are New York 13, Alaska, Arizona 1, Virginia 11, New York 25, Illinois 11, Florida 24, Michigan 7, Nevada 3, and North Carolina 8. Under “Rating 2,” nine Republican seats are listed as “leaning Democratic.” Under “Rating 3,” some 22 GOP seats are listed as “true toss-up.” The fourth rating, “lean Republican,” finds 15 seats in the category that comes with this warning: “If there’s a wave, some could be in trouble.” The last “likely Republican” rating finds another 11. Only three Democratic districts are seen as “hopeful” GOP pickups. They are Florida 16, Pennsylvania 11, and Texas 22. Another 10 Democratic seats are listed as “possible” pickups.

Republicans facing the music? Or just a sly way of gaming expectations? In any event, I’d buy the full list for a dollar!

Here’s one House member that Republicans should add to their deathwatch, even though he will be re-elected: NRCC Chair Tom Cole.

(Hat-tip: Andy Dufresne)

UPDATE: “The Fix” says that the NRCC is pulling out of CO-04, FL-24, and MN-06. Maybe that’s true, but the NRCC did dump $375K against Democrat Betsy Markey in Colorado yesterday.

LATER UPDATE: The Politico says that the NRCC plans to pull out after their current $375K buy expires in Colorado’s 4th CD.

53 thoughts on “House GOP’s “Death List” Leaks”

  2. A key Democratic official refused to provide his own list but said, “I’d rather be us than them.”

    BTW I wonder if the guy had a chance to include Bachmann on his death list before leaking it?

    (No less than Cook has moved that one to toss up)

  3. Nick Lampson does not deserve to have his name bracketed with the alleged adulterer in Fl or the sleepy bumbler in PA. He’s in a tough district, but it’s a great year. And Lampson has done nothing wrong to earn defeat. Even when the hurricane came last month through he gave good constituent services.

    Meanwhile his opponent is a protege of Phil Gramm, the sometimes chief economic advisor to McSame, an early architect of deregulating the financial industry, and candidate richly deserving repudiation.

    Anyway, I’m sure we’d all love to see the others on that list. Without the perzact details, you should compare the Safe, Likely, Lean, and Toss-up counts on your SSP rankings with the Repubs little list. Are they even more pessimistic about their chances than you?

  4. To rev up the base to turnout?

    Obama supposedly has a ‘leak’ of a poll showing PA within a point or two.  Could he be doing likewise?

  6. I could have sworn some dems were nervous when he was announced as the NRCC head for this cycle because he was such an “election genius.”  If this guy is the best they’ve got to run a committee I feel good about our chances for the forseeable future.  

    Tom Cole makes Liddy Dole look like an election guru.  

  8. Is Michigan-07.  While I agree Walberg’s career as a congressman is all but over, why would the NRCC be dropping so much money there?  Are they holding on to blind hope?  Is this intended to be misleading?  Or what is going on here?

  10. The Tom Cole deathwatch threads are probably something to remember for a lifetime 😉 And I really hope to see the new deathwatch thread on November 5th.

  11. http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

    Less than a week after controversial comments about investigating the patriotism of members of Congress, the National Republican Congressional Committee has pulled out of Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann’s district, a well-placed GOP source tells Scorecard.

    Bachmann earned widespread scorn for her remarks, made on MSNBC’s “Hardball” last week. In the following four days, her Democratic opponent, former state Transportation Commissioner Elwyn Tinklenberg, had raised over $1 million and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had reserved an additional $1 million in advertising time. Both the campaign and the DCCC are already running new ads.

    The NRCC had reserved time on behalf of Bachmann in early October, but the money had yet to flow to her district. She was not among the beneficiaries of a rush of new independent expenditures the committee made in the past two days.

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